LASU Journal of Employment Relations and Human Resource Management
(LJERHRM)
ISSN: 2705-3482
Volume 5, No. 2, 2025
Pages 128-142
DOI: 10.36108/ljerhrm/5202.50.0280
Spatial Correlation Between Youth Unemployment Hotspots and Terrorist Activity: A Geo-Coded Dataset Study
Abubakari NAJIMU
Department of Private Law, University of Ghana
anajimu@ug.edu.gh/+233246166590
Salima HARUNA
Tamale Technical University
hsalima@tatu.edu.gh/+233244984398
Mohammed AZIZ
Tamale Technical University, Ghana
maziz@tatu.edu.gh/+233244685502
Ibrahim ABDULAI
Bagabaga College of Education, Ghana
a.ibrahim@bace.edu.gh+233241723150.
Abstract
This study investigates the spatial correlation between youth unemployment and terrorist activity at the sub-national level across East Africa and the Sahel region over the period 2015–2022. While a general link between economic deprivation and conflict is often hypothesized, this research provides a fine-grained empirical test of the relationship using high-resolution geo-coded data. The researcher combines small area estimates of youth unemployment from the International Labour Organization (ILO) with data on terrorist incidents from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Nighttime light data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) serve as a proxy for local economic activity, thereby strengthening the robustness of our economic measures. Using spatial econometric techniques, including Global and Local Moran’s I for hotspot identification and Spatial Lag Regression Models to quantify spatial dependence, the study reveals significant spatial clustering of both youth unemployment and terrorist incidents. The spatial regression results indicate a statistically significant and positive association between areas of high youth unemployment and the frequency of terrorist attacks, even after controlling for general economic activity. The findings underscore the importance of targeted youth employment initiatives and localized economic development policies in regions identified as high-unemployment and conflict-prone areas. By integrating high-resolution labour, conflict, and remote-sensing data, this study contributes to the spatial conflict literature by providing one of the most comprehensive empirical assessments of the geography of economic exclusion and terrorism in Africa.
Keywords: Conflict Studies, Geo-coded Data, Moran’s I, Spatial Econometrics, Terrorism, VIIRS, Youth Unemployment.